ALCES Based Project Reports
2004
A Strategic-Level Comparison of Urban Footprint
Associated with Alternative Population Growth
Strategies for the City of Edmonton (2001 - 2031)
The City of Edmonton has enjoyed impressive historical expansion in both population and area, growing from a small community of 2,626 people occupying 23 km2 at the turn of the century to a large city supporting approx. 716,515 people on approx. 363 km2 in 2004. Edmonton has maintained an average annual growth rate of 2.6% in population over the past 50 years, and 1.6% over the past 30 years. ALCES (A landscape simulation model) was used to explore the consequences of different potential growth rates and distributional patterns. The purpose of this project is to provide information to the City of Edmonton on the historical (past 100 years) and projected future growth (2001-2031) of the City of Edmonton. The two basic questions this report seeks to answer are: 1) How might the Edmonton Urban Footprint differ given four different (low, moderate, high, very high) population growth scenarios? And 2) How might the Edmonton Urban Footprint differ given three different distributional patterns (status quo, Downtown focus, Mature Neighborhood focus, Suburban Area focus) for a moderate population growth scenario?
Brad Stelfox, Richard Levy, and Heather Gariepy
2011
Modeling Rangeland Community Structure in ALCES;
Southern Alberta Sustainability Strategy (SASS)
Rangeland communities are not constant in structure (physiognomy), but change through time as they grow older, or when they are disturbed by various natural processes including fire, drought, and herbivory. Unlike forest communities, rangelands do not have to be reset to the youngest seral stage when they are affected by a natural disturbance. Instead, structural change varies depending on the intensity of the disturbance.
Barry Adams and Brad Stelfox
2005
Looking Ahead: An Assessment of Potential Land Use
Trends in Strathcona County
Strathcona County is a unique municipality located northeast of Edmonton in Alberta's Capital Region. The juxtaposition of urban and rural areas governed by a single municipality has created an economically and culturally diverse community. It includes the hamlet of Sherwood Park, plus eight smaller hamlets, 900 farms and numerous country residential developments. Historically an agricultural-dominated area, the economic base of the region has evolved to include oil refineries, manufacturing and other heavy industry, and diverse retail and commercial operations. The County is strongly influenced by its proximity to the City of Edmonton, which is the commercial and transportation hub of northern Alberta. Edmonton provides numerous economic opportunities for Strathcona County businesses, and County residents frequently travel to and from Edmonton for work, recreation, health care, and a wide range of other metropolitan services. In turn, the County is also a destination for many Edmonton residents seeking a range of recreational and other activities. Steady growth in the urban and rural population, and a desire to grow and diversify the economy while maintaining traditional land uses such as agriculture, make it challenging to plan future land use development. The purpose of this study is to assess competing land uses and the cumulative effects of land use planning decisions in and around Strathcona County. A modeling approach is used to forecast
Daniel Farr and Brad Stelfox
2008
Alberta Southern East Slopes Integrated Land Management
Pilot Project (draft)
The Southern East Slopes Integrated Land Management Pilot Project (SES Pilot) used a real landscape and real data from southwest Alberta to evaluate how selected ecological and economic ‘performance’ outcomes could be achieved through different land management scenarios and how such integrated evaluations might be of use for policy analysis, economic trade-off analysis, and land use decision making. Economic and ecological indicators were developed using an integrated Genuine Wealth Accounting system (i.e. integration of natural, financial, and social capital accounts) to account for the physical and qualitative conditions and the monetary value, where possible, of key ecological assets, including water, carbon, and land. These indicators were then used to simulate potential trade-offs among market and non-market resource values using the ALCES© model, including the influence of pre-defined land management objectives on these indicators.
Brad Stelfox, Mark Anielski, Matt Carlson and Terry Antoniuk
2008
Chief Mountain Study Executive Summary
In this paper we present a case study from northeastern Alberta, Canada. Our objective is to demonstrate a fundamentally different approach to forest management...
Silvatech Consulting
2008
Chief Mountain Study - A Forecast of Land Use
Cumulative Effects (presentation)
Barry Wilson and Mark Hudson, Silvatech Consulting
2011
An Assessment of the Cumulative Effects of Land Uses in
the Ghost River Watershed, Alberta - Presentation
Refer to report under same name.
Cornel Yarmoloy and Brad Stelfox
2011
An Assessment of the Cumulative Effects of Land Uses
within the Ghost River Watershed, Alberta - Report
Society is increasingly aware of how our rivers, and the landscapes that support them, deliver not only water, but a suite of societal and ecosystem services which are needed to sustain our quality of life. Eastern Slope watersheds, such as the Ghost, supply diverse recreational needs, timber products, energy resources, support biological diversity and provide ecosystem services such as carbon storage, drinking water and flood control. Human land use development and recreational activities can potentially reduce the effectiveness of these valued services through incremental negative impacts on natural processes. Reductions in the ability of natural systems to provide clean water to downstream communities, such as Calgary, results in an increasing need for water treatment infrastructure and associated monies. Such costs are passed onto consumers through increasing taxes and metered water costs. As demonstrated in other geographies, the significant burden on downstream tax payers for potable drinking water can be reduced through the effective management of headwater areas rather than building and maintaining increasingly larger and more costly water treatment facilities. To support their vision of preserving and enhancing the integrity of the ecosystem functions in the Ghost watershed, the Ghost Watershed Alliance Society (GWAS; www.ghostwatershed.ca) sponsored a quantitative assessment of how past, current and future cumulative impacts of land use on multiple-use forest reserve and private lands within the Ghost-Waiparous watershed could potentially affect sustainability of forests, water, wildlife and recreational resources (Phase 1). The GWAS engaged ALCES Landscape and Land-use Ltd. (ALCES� Group; www.alces.ca) to conduct this initial assessment.
Cornel Yarmoloy and Brad Stelfox
2004
Southern Alberta Landscapes: Meeting the Challenges
Ahead - Input-Output Model
GoA Report on Economic Input Output Model involving ALCES
Suren Kulshreshtha and Russell Consulting
2007
A Comparison of Land Use Options for the Mbaracayu
Biosphere Reserve - Final Report
Unplanned and unsustainable land use has transformed the Atlantic Forests of Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina. In 1991, responding to the rapid loss of Atlantic Forest, the Government of Paraguay created the Mbaracayu Forest Natural Reserve (MFNR) and established the Cuenca watershed as a mixed-used protected area. Given the land use pressures facing the region, the future existence of healthy ecosystems within the Cuenca relies on balancing land use with conservation. The Mbaracayu program, run by the Fundacion Moises Bertoni (FMB), seeks to integrate a vision of sustainable and social development in harmony with the conservation of the MFNR. In response to the recognized need for a management plan, the FMB collaborated with the Alberta Research Council on the project "Capacity Enhancement for Community- and Ecologically-based Management in the Bosque Mbaracayu Biosphere Reserve, Paraguay". As part of the project, the land use simulation tool ALCES was applied to evaluate land use scenarios in the Cuenca. Applying ALCES contributed to the development of a management plan by informing the identification of sustainable land use options. The report is intended to communicate the ALCES tool and analysis, solicit feedback, and inform training of FMB staff to apply ALCES in the Cuenca.
Matt Carlson
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